The Fed quietly altered its March inflation forecast — and it points to more pain for Americans. How to fight back
The Fed quietly altered its March inflation forecast — and it points to more pain for Americans. How to fight back
Aditi GangulySun, April 19, 2026 at 12:33 PM UTC
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Jerome Powell takes questions during a press conference following the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve.
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Something important happened at the Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting that flew under the radar for many.
Buried inside the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (1), policymakers quietly raised their 2026 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7% — a 30-basis-point jump that represents the largest single-year upward revision in recent cycles (2). Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, got the same treatment, moving up from 2.5% to 2.7%.
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In simple terms: The people in charge of managing the U.S. economy now expect prices to rise faster this year than they thought just three months ago.
What’s driving the revision
In a word (or two): energy prices.
Since U.S. and Israeli forces launched military actions against Iran on Feb. 28 (3), the cost of a gallon of regular gasoline has surged to more than $4 per gallon as of mid-April (4), according to the American Automotive Association. West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at $99.08 per barrel on April 13 (5).
Iran’s virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which a significant share of global oil transits — followed by Trump’s own blockade of the passage, has restricted supply at a time when spring driving season is pushing demand higher (6).
All of this adds up.
In their latest CPI release, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that inflation is now up 3.3% for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 (7).
Even in light of the ongoing ceasefire, the damage may have already been done. Iranian strikes against nearby refineries have hamstrung global oil production, and some estimates suggest it could take two years for output to normalize (8). What’s more, the war coincided with the start of the sowing season in the U.S., and drove up global fertilizer prices by 30% (9).
Taken together, even with the cautious promise of peace, your price at the pump and grocery store checkout may stay elevated.
And higher fuel costs don’t stop with your car. They filter into transportation, shipping and the price of virtually everything that moves by truck, rail or ship — which is to say, almost everything you buy.
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Why the stock market should care
The S&P 500 entered 2026 at a Shiller CAPE Ratio above 40 (10) — only the second time in the metric’s 155-year history it has crossed that threshold (the first being during the dot-com bubble). As of April 2026, the CAPE sat at roughly 36.48 (11), still more than double the long-term historical average of about 17.
Elevated valuations require near-perfect conditions to sustain themselves. Hotter inflation erodes those conditions because it makes rate cuts less likely and raises the specter of rate hikes. At the March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to hold rates steady (12) at 3.5% to 3.75%, and the dot plot still shows just one cut this year.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration told NBC (6) that it projects gasoline prices will not fall below $3 per gallon at any point before the end of 2027.
How to fight back
You can’t control the Fed, OPEC or the price of crude. But you can make deliberate choices that blunt inflation’s impact on your household:
Rethink your cash
With the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, high-yield savings accounts and short-term Treasuries are still paying meaningful interest. Idle cash in a checking account earning next to nothing loses purchasing power every day inflation runs above the Fed’s 2% target. Moving emergency reserves into a high-yield vehicle is one of the simplest ways to keep up.
A high-yield account like a Wealthfront Cash Account can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it.
A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3.30% through program banks, and new clients can get an extra 0.75% boost during their first three months on up to $150,000 for a total variable APY of 4.05%.
That’s ten times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC’s March report.
Additionally, Wealthfront is offering new clients who enable direct deposit ($1,000/mo minimum) to their Cash Account and open and fund a new investment account an additional 0.25% APY increase with no expiration date or balance limit, meaning your APY could be as high as 4.30%.
With no minimum balances or account fees, as well as 24/7 withdrawals and free domestic wire transfers, your funds remain accessible at all times. Plus, you get access to up to $8M FDIC Insurance eligibility through program banks.
Audit your fixed costs
Inflation might be pushing prices higher everywhere, but many households are also paying more than they need to simply because recurring bills go unchecked. Subscriptions, insurance premiums and automatic charges can quietly climb over time.
Reviewing these fixed costs can potentially free up hundreds of dollars a year — that can then be redirected toward investments that have historically kept ahead of inflation.
You can create a custom budget and track where your money is going at all times with Monarch Money.
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Once you link your accounts — including investments and real estate — you will be able to view every transaction through one clean, searchable list. This way, you can spot any unexpected charges, such as unwanted subscriptions, quickly and seamlessly. Monarch Money also helps you forecast your spending beyond just one month, as well as save for big goals along the way.
What’s more, you can get 50% off your subscription for the first year when you sign up using the code WISE50.
Diversify beyond the S&P 500
Markets have been particularly choppy so far in 2026. Geopolitical tensions — including the Iran conflict pushing energy prices higher — along with disruption from the AI boom and lingering inflation fears, have all added to the volatility.
Volatility is nothing new on Wall Street, but it can be a reminder not to rely too heavily on just equities. Putting a portion of your portfolio into safe haven assets that historically hold their value during turbulent periods may be worth considering.
Gold was a clear winner in 2025. Even after recent pullbacks, the precious metal is still up more than 55% over the past 12 months as of April 17 (13), and it has long served as a hedge against inflation and market turbulence.
Open a gold IRA
One way to invest in gold that also provides significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold.
Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, thereby combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold. This can make it an attractive option for those looking to potentially hedge their retirement funds against economic uncertainty.
To learn more, you can get a free information guide so you can decide if gold suits you and your portfolio. If it feels like a good fit, you can even get up to $10,000 in free silver on qualifying purchases.
Invest in real estate
Real estate can also play a useful role when markets get choppy. Because property values don’t always move in tandem with stocks, adding real estate exposure can help diversify a portfolio during periods of volatility.
Additionally, property can offer some protection against inflation. When construction and land costs rise, home values often follow — and rents typically move higher as well, creating an income stream that can keep pace with rising prices.
The good news is that investing in residential real estate no longer requires taking on a mortgage, saving for a large down payment or managing tenants.
Platforms like Arrived allow you to invest in shares of vacation and rental properties across the country with as little as $100.
To get started, simply browse through their selection of vetted properties, each picked for their potential appreciation and income generation. Arrived distributes any rental income generated by properties to investors monthly, allowing you to potentially set up a passive income stream without the extra work that comes with being a landlord of your own rental property.
What’s more, once you’re an investor with Arrived, you gain quarterly access to their newly launched secondary market, where investors can buy and sell shares of individual rental and vacation rental properties directly on the platform.
The best part? For a limited time, when you open an account and add $1,000 or more, Arrived will credit your account with a 1% match.
Lock in rates where you can
If you’re thinking about a big-ticket purchase that requires financing — whether it’s a home, a renovation or even refinancing a mortgage — the current interest rate environment may be one of the more favorable windows you’ll see in the near term. A recent 30-basis-point uptick in inflation expectations doesn’t automatically mean rates will jump, but it does reduce the odds of further cuts.
One way to get the best deal possible is to shop around, especially in the mortgage market, where even small differences in rates can compound into major savings over time.
If you’re planning on buying a house, getting quotes from multiple lenders can help you save substantially over the life of your mortgage. Borrowers could save an average of $80,024 over the life of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage by shopping around and choosing the best offer, according to LendingTree (14).
Now there’s a way for you to compare the rates offered by various lenders near you through the Mortgage Research Center.
All you have to do is answer some basic questions about your property and your finances (including your annual income and credit score), and Mortgage Research Center will compile a list of mortgage rates offered by lenders near you.
You can also get connected with custom mortgage offers from lenders, and set up a free introductory call with no obligation to hire.
— With files from Dave Smith
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Article sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1); Truflation (2); National Today (3); American Automotive Association (4); VettaFi (5); NBC (6); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (7); Reuters (8); Moneywise (9); FinancialContent (10); YCharts (11); CNBC (12); APMEX (13); LendingTree (14)
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
Source: “AOL Money”
